Scatter plot for the Tversky-Kahneman Risk Aversness data

This is a scatter-plot of the data, generated in Amos Tversky's and Daniel Kahneman's pioneering experiment on human risk averseness (and risk-seeking), and what they called the "possibility effect" and the "certainty effect". The data is taken from Kahneman's masterpiece "Thinking Fast and Slow", p. 315.

The horizontal axis is the actual probability of the event. The vertical axis is the "decision weight", i.e. the "gambling estimate". For perfectly rational gamblers, it should be the line y=x.

The data is:

[[0, 0], [1, 5.5], [2, 8.1], [5, 13.2], [10, 18.6], [20, 26.1], [50, 42.1], [80, 60.1], [90, 71.2], [95, 79.3], [98, 87.1], [100, 100]]

The line is

y= 5.827286892 + 0.8010391240 x


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