> #ok to post ; > #Yifan Zhang, 11/6/2020 ; > ; > #Q1. ; > #Use Wikipedia (or otherwise) to find the final outcome of the electoral votes for the presidential elections for 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016, and find the number of ways in which it could have been counted to lead to the final ouctome, by using the appropriate procedures in ComboProject8.txt. ; > #Year, #RED, #BLUE, TOTAL ; > #2000, 271, 266, 537+1 FAITHLESS VOTE ; > #2004, 286, 251, 537+1 FAITHLESS VOTE ; > #2008, 173, 365, 538 ; > #2012, 206, 332, 538 ; > #2016, 304, 227, 531+7 FAITHLESS VOTE ; > ; > read `ComboProject8.txt` `This is ComboProject8.txt, a Maple package that is part of Project 8 in Dr. Z.\ 's Combinatorics Class at Rutgers University` `To study and simulate vote counting` `` `Team Leader: tbd ` `` `Other Team members: tbd ` `` `For a list of all the functions type: Help(); ` `For Help with any of the functions, type Help(FunctionName):` ; > coeff(GFv(USEC(), x), x, 271) 16965465344318 ; > coeff(GFv(USEC(), x), x, 286) 16196017263096 ; > coeff(GFv(USEC(), x), x, 365) 3182416524832 ; > coeff(GFv(USEC(), x), x, 332) 8628577597686 ; > coeff(GFv(USEC(), x), x, 304) 13873406885786 ; > ; > #Q2. ; > #Assuming, rather unrealistally, that the probability of winning for either of the candidates is the same for each state, and that they are independent of each other, use the popular vote (also given in Wikipedia), use the appropriate procedure to find the (estimated) probability of the ultimate winner of (i) winning (i.e. scoring at least 270 votes) (ii) scoring that many electoral votes or more. ; > p:=0.5 Typesetting:-mprintslash([(p := .5)],[.5]) ; > f:=GFvp(USEC(), 1/2, x); Typesetting:-mprintslash([(f := 1/2251799813685248*x^538+1/281474976710656*x^ 535+5/2251799813685248*x^534+3/2251799813685248*x^533+17/1125899906842624*x^532 +43/2251799813685248*x^531+9/562949953421312*x^530+61/1125899906842624*x^529+ 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562949953421312*x^201+3739496115049/1125899906842624*x^200+7291642941851/ 2251799813685248*x^199+7105794480365/2251799813685248*x^198+3460773953287/ 1125899906842624*x^197+842375150419/281474976710656*x^196+6558249046909/ 2251799813685248*x^195+797422856341/281474976710656*x^194+6202490695643/ 2251799813685248*x^193+3013828551641/1125899906842624*x^192+5854963107251/ 2251799813685248*x^191+2842243105633/1125899906842624*x^190+5516300169293/ 2251799813685248*x^189+668809383395/281474976710656*x^188+2593538653967/ 1125899906842624*x^187+5026169423561/2251799813685248*x^186+2433905079487/ 1125899906842624*x^185+589006809099/281474976710656*x^184+2279476694427/ 1125899906842624*x^183+2204277044925/1125899906842624*x^182+532612490331/ 281474976710656*x^181+4116030292397/2251799813685248*x^180+3973980781619/ 2251799813685248*x^179+1917391570803/1125899906842624*x^178+3698465221563/ 2251799813685248*x^177+891262782751/562949953421312*x^176+3434561225645/ 2251799813685248*x^175+3307012046945/2251799813685248*x^174+99450516401/ 70368744177664*x^173+765195995251/562949953421312*x^172+1471060033105/ 1125899906842624*x^171+2826426993933/2251799813685248*x^170+2713703569031/ 2251799813685248*x^169+2603945128309/2251799813685248*x^168+2497143781269/ 2251799813685248*x^167+598322118139/562949953421312*x^166+143272808903/ 140737488355328*x^165+2194355954575/2251799813685248*x^164+262405172547/ 281474976710656*x^163+1003499094945/1125899906842624*x^162+1917600677723/ 2251799813685248*x^161+457755136173/562949953421312*x^160+109201682659/ 140737488355328*x^159+416546650439/562949953421312*x^158+396966026001/ 562949953421312*x^157+1512221733293/2251799813685248*x^156+179902476449/ 281474976710656*x^155+1368816743171/2251799813685248*x^154+1300969070333/ 2251799813685248*x^153+154453965717/281474976710656*x^152+586379045449/ 1125899906842624*x^151+278075013417/562949953421312*x^150+263552065107/ 562949953421312*x^149+998432176367/2251799813685248*x^148+944920144061/ 2251799813685248*x^147+223404906571/562949953421312*x^146+844477271443/ 2251799813685248*x^145+398719483945/1125899906842624*x^144+47028129661/ 140737488355328*x^143+709455482123/2251799813685248*x^142+668399676139/ 2251799813685248*x^141+629226945869/2251799813685248*x^140+591881433527/ 2251799813685248*x^139+139076801505/562949953421312*x^138+522448446323/ 2251799813685248*x^137+61281185841/281474976710656*x^136+229827439823/ 1125899906842624*x^135+215304790853/1125899906842624*x^134+403058961273/ 2251799813685248*x^133+376948865953/2251799813685248*x^132+88056450223/ 562949953421312*x^131+10276153709/70368744177664*x^130+9585314627/ 70368744177664*x^129+142926981859/1125899906842624*x^128+133079086477/ 1125899906842624*x^127+247593139583/2251799813685248*x^126+230110337445/ 2251799813685248*x^125+213662255583/2251799813685248*x^124+99101204021/ 1125899906842624*x^123+91842728795/1125899906842624*x^122+85033601175/ 1125899906842624*x^121+39326145049/562949953421312*x^120+36338939573/ 562949953421312*x^119+134180113015/2251799813685248*x^118+123738237027/ 2251799813685248*x^117+113992004741/2251799813685248*x^116+104904532333/ 2251799813685248*x^115+96440188453/2251799813685248*x^114+88564644621/ 2251799813685248*x^113+40622408469/1125899906842624*x^112+18612218211/ 562949953421312*x^111+68146273105/2251799813685248*x^110+62307700923/ 2251799813685248*x^109+56905057539/2251799813685248*x^108+51911499571/ 2251799813685248*x^107+47301362511/2251799813685248*x^106+43050144947/ 2251799813685248*x^105+39134535973/2251799813685248*x^104+35532339797/ 2251799813685248*x^103+2013903353/140737488355328*x^102+29184882177/ 2251799813685248*x^101+26400664613/2251799813685248*x^100+11925924895/ 1125899906842624*x^99+21521499793/2251799813685248*x^98+9696808959/ 1125899906842624*x^97+17453125685/2251799813685248*x^96+7842928935/ 1125899906842624*x^95+7039244329/1125899906842624*x^94+12618513241/ 2251799813685248*x^93+11294238537/2251799813685248*x^92+10094708495/ 2251799813685248*x^91+4504843269/1125899906842624*x^90+8029647723/ 2251799813685248*x^89+7145704429/2251799813685248*x^88+6349587741/ 2251799813685248*x^87+176051357/70368744177664*x^86+1247690247/562949953421312* x^85+4414352627/2251799813685248*x^84+3898350489/2251799813685248*x^83+ 107410829/70368744177664*x^82+1512783735/1125899906842624*x^81+332358821/ 281474976710656*x^80+2332695429/2251799813685248*x^79+2043040165/ 2251799813685248*x^78+1786252409/2251799813685248*x^77+194873789/ 281474976710656*x^76+679103069/1125899906842624*x^75+590565309/1125899906842624 *x^74+512620199/1125899906842624*x^73+222062491/562949953421312*x^72+384047447/ 1125899906842624*x^71+662899405/2251799813685248*x^70+285487893/ 1125899906842624*x^69+490811551/2251799813685248*x^68+421035657/ 2251799813685248*x^67+360421915/2251799813685248*x^66+153940465/ 1125899906842624*x^65+65607245/562949953421312*x^64+6974683/70368744177664*x^63 +189392667/2251799813685248*x^62+80172405/1125899906842624*x^61+1058061/ 17592186044416*x^60+57058873/1125899906842624*x^59+95923935/2251799813685248*x^ 58+80428483/2251799813685248*x^57+8408217/281474976710656*x^56+56111173/ 2251799813685248*x^55+23340503/1125899906842624*x^54+38731301/2251799813685248* x^53+32046021/2251799813685248*x^52+26438475/2251799813685248*x^51+21749899/ 2251799813685248*x^50+17839141/2251799813685248*x^49+14586067/2251799813685248* x^48+5945021/1125899906842624*x^47+9661071/2251799813685248*x^46+7823149/ 2251799813685248*x^45+6314467/2251799813685248*x^44+2539539/1125899906842624*x^ 43+4069867/2251799813685248*x^42+3249925/2251799813685248*x^41+1292799/ 1125899906842624*x^40+2048369/2251799813685248*x^39+1616541/2251799813685248*x^ 38+79423/140737488355328*x^37+994337/2251799813685248*x^36+387331/ 1125899906842624*x^35+600849/2251799813685248*x^34+231911/1125899906842624*x^33 +356345/2251799813685248*x^32+272173/2251799813685248*x^31+206935/ 2251799813685248*x^30+156685/2251799813685248*x^29+29393/562949953421312*x^28+ 87739/2251799813685248*x^27+16377/562949953421312*x^26+48207/2251799813685248*x ^25+35065/2251799813685248*x^24+3229/281474976710656*x^23+9341/1125899906842624 *x^22+1635/281474976710656*x^21+9479/2251799813685248*x^20+6821/ 2251799813685248*x^19+1127/562949953421312*x^18+1581/1125899906842624*x^17+1165 /1125899906842624*x^16+717/1125899906842624*x^15+115/281474976710656*x^14+365/ 1125899906842624*x^13+427/2251799813685248*x^12+217/2251799813685248*x^11+201/ 2251799813685248*x^10+61/1125899906842624*x^9+9/562949953421312*x^8+43/ 2251799813685248*x^7+17/1125899906842624*x^6+3/2251799813685248*x^5+5/ 2251799813685248*x^4+1/281474976710656*x^3+1/2251799813685248]) ; > evalf(add(coeff(f, x, i), i=270..538)) .4962304641 ; > #The answer is around 0.496 ; > ; > #Q3. ; > #Using procedure SimCount(L,p,N,K) with N=2000, K=4, four times and with p=3/10, 2/5, 1/2, 3/5, 5/7, and L=USEC(), see whether the first component of the output (that give estimates for the expectation, standard-deviation, and the 3rd, and 4th moments) agree with each other (remember they are only statistical estimates) and how they are close to the true value obtained by using StatAnal(f,x,K) applied to GFvp(USEC(),p,x). I have no clue about the theoreical (exact) value of the probability that such a count is consistent, but the second output of SimCount(L,p,N,K) give estimates. How close, in the above-mentioned four runs are there to each other? ; > ; > #For p=3/10 ; > SimuCount(USEC(),3/10, 2000, 4); [162.7780000, 47.53066080, .2153509882, 2.747913277], .4260000000 ; > evalf(StatAnal(GFvp(USEC(), 3/10, x), x,4)) [161.4000000, 46.65683230, .2695069204, 2.844567676] ; > #For p=2/5 ; > SimuCount(USEC(),2/5, 2000, 4); [215.4825000, 50.48620300, .1823441314, 2.880264282], .2495000000 ; > evalf(StatAnal(GFvp(USEC(), 2/5, x), x,4)) [215.2000000, 49.87825176, .1260503198, 2.769840597] ; > #For p=1/2 ; > SimuCount(USEC(),1/2, 2000, 4); [270.4375000, 51.55297368, .6228210294e-2, 2.598034352], .1615000000 ; > evalf(StatAnal(GFvp(USEC(), 1/2, x), x,4)) [269., 50.90677755, 0., 2.748917015] ; > #For p=3/5 ; > SimuCount(USEC(),3/5, 2000, 4); [322.0930000, 49.63611942, -.5190689907e-1, 2.706237907], .2395000000 ; > evalf(StatAnal(GFvp(USEC(), 3/5, x), x,4)) [322.8000000, 49.87825176, -.1260503198, 2.769840597] ; > #For p=5/7 ; > SimuCount(USEC(),5/7, 2000, 4); [385.6200000, 46.21821718, -.2213024275, 2.788601083], .4715000000 ; > evalf(StatAnal(GFvp(USEC(), 5/7, x), x,4)) [384.2857143, 45.99467583, -.2929144739, 2.861904358] ; > ;